Tài liệu THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS: Regional Impacts, Responses and Solutions doc

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ESCAP:
Ms. Noeleen Heyzer, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission
for Asia and the Pacific, The United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok
10200, Thailand; phone: +66-2-2881234; e-mail: unescap@unescap.org.
ESCWA:
Mr. Bader Al-Dafa, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission
for Western Asia, P.O. Box 11-8575, Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut, Lebanon; phone: +961-1-
981301; e-mail: http://www.escwa.un.org/main/contact.asp.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (continued)
v
CONTENTS
Page
Acknowledgements iii
Acronyms x
Overview 1
A crisis across the regions 1
All regions have suffered declines in growth 1
Despite banking sector rescue plans, risks remain 3
Falling equity prices 3
Capital flows have been drying up 3
Sharp falls in commodity prices 5
Contracting global trade 5
Rising protectionism 6
Rising unemployment, increasing poverty 6
Expansionary monetary and banking policies 8
Combating recession with fiscal stimulus 8
An uncertain economic outlook 9
Regional responses for early recovery 9
Regional financial cooperation 9
Efforts at regional coordination 10
The way forward: the role of regional policy-making 10
CHAPTER I 15
The Economic Commission for Africa 15
The impact of the crisis 15
Country policy responses 22
Regional responses 24
The way forward 25
CHAPTER II 29
The Economic Commission for Europe 29
The impact of the crisis 30
Country policy responses 36
Regional responses 40
The way forward 42
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CONTENTS (continued)
Page
CHAPTER III 45
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 45
Impact of the crisis 45
Country policy responses 50
Regional responses 50
The way forward 52
CHAPTER IV 57
The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific 57
The impact of the crisis 58
Country-specific responses 64
Regional responses 66
The way forward 67
CHAPTER V 73
The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia 73
The impact of the crisis 73
Country-specific responses 78
Regional responses 80
The way forward 82
References 85
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FIGURES
Page
Figure 1 – Real GDP growth by region, 2009 2
Figure 2 – Regional emerging markets equity indices, 19 September 2008-
16 April 2009 4
Figure 3 – Net private capital flows to developing country regions,
2002 and 2007 4
Figure 4 – Total trade as a percentage of GDP (constant 2000 prices) 6
Figure I-1 – Price indices of major commodity groups, 2007-2009 18
Figure I-2 – Remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa ($ billions),
2000-2008 19
Figure I-3 – Unemployment rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2003-2008 21
Figure II-1 – Real growth in the major ECE subregions, 1999-2010 31
Figure III-1 – Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, estimated
growth in 2009 46
Figure III-2 – Latin America, monthly exchange rates in six countries,
2008-2009 46
Figure III-3 – Increases in public expenditure, percentage of 2008 GDP 47
Figure III-4 – Current account balance, percentage of GDP at current prices,
1994-2008 48
Figure III-5 – ECLAC region, commodity price index, 2008-2009 49
Figure III-6 – Measures implemented by ECLAC countries 51
Figure III-7 – Benchmark interest rates, 2007-2009 52
Figure III-8 – ECLAC region – GDP growth and net capital flows as a
percentage of GDP 54
Figure IV-1 – Stock of portfolio investments as a percentage of foreign exchange
reserves, selected economies, 2001 and 2008 or latest 58
Figure IV-2 – Current account balances as a percentage of GDP, selected
developing ESCAP economies, 1996 and 2008 59
Figure IV-3 – Short-term debt as a percentage of GDP, selected developing
ESCAP economies, 1996 and 2007 60
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Page
Figure IV-4 – Equity market decline from peak to trough in 1997/98, and in the
current crisis from peak to end-March 2009 61
Figure IV-5 – Selected stimulus packages as a percentage of GDP 65
Figure IV-6 – Fiscal balance, top surplus and deficit economies, 2008 66
Figure IV-7 – Economic growth, selected ESCAP economies, 2007-2009 68
Figure IV-8 – Real GDP growth, selected developing ESCAP and developed
economies, 2003-2009 69
FIGURES (continued)
ix
Page
Table I-1 – Expected exchange rate depreciation in Africa against the
US dollar, 2009 17
Table I-2 – Africa’s merchandise trade, annual percentage change at constant
prices, 2006-2008 19
Table I-3 – Net ODA disbursements to key African recipients, 2000-2007 20
Table IV-1 – Value of exports, year-on-year, selected ESCAP
developing economies 62
Table V-1 – Real GDP growth and consumer inflation rate, 2008 and 2009 73
Table V-2 – Oil market estimations and projections, 2008 and 2009 76
Table V-3 – Destination of ESCWA exports, 2005-2007 77
TABLES
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ACRONYMS
ADB Asian Development Bank
AfDB African Development Bank
AIDS Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
AIG American International Group
APF African Partnership Forum
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
AUC African Union Commission
CAF Andean Development Corporation
CFA Communaute Financiere Africaine
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
DSF Debt sustainability framework
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ECA Economic Commission for Africa
ECB European Central Bank
ECE Economic Commission for Europe
ECLAC Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EIB European Investment Bank
ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
ESCWA Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
EU European Union
xi
EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community
FDI Foreign direct investment
FLAR Latin American Reserve Fund
G8 Group of eight countries
G20 Group of twenty countries
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross domestic product
GNI Gross national income
HIV Human immunodeficiency virus
IDB Inter-American Development Bank
IIF Institute of International Finance
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IOM International Organization for Migration
MDG Millennium Development Goals
NMS New member states
ODA Official development assistance
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
SDR Special Drawing Right
SEE South-East Europe
SMEs Small and medium-sized enterprises
SWF Sovereign wealth fund
ACRONYMS (continued)
xii
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UN-DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
VAT Value added tax
WGP World gross product
WTO World Trade Organization
ACRONYMS (continued)
1
Each region, not to mention each country,
has its own unique set of challenges, but
the report finds many commonalities and,
based on these, it identifies further opportu-
nities for policy coordination and coopera-
tion at the regional and inter-regional levels.
The report concludes that the regional di-
mension provides an important and effective
framework – not just for mitigating the
impact of the current crisis but also for
reducing the chances of similar crises in the
future.
All regions have suffered declines
in growth
According to World Bank estimates, the
global economy is expected to contract by
1.7 per cent in 2009, the first decline on
record in world output (World Bank, 2009).
The crisis will plague economies all over the
world – but the impact will differ in scale
and severity from one country and region to
another (Figure 1). The epicentre is the ECE
region where economic growth in its ad-
The five Regional Commissions come together at a time in which the world’s
economies face some of the most difficult challenges presented in the past century:
from climate change effects to extreme food/fuel price volatility to the worst global
recession since the Great Depression. The effects these are having on developing
countries’ efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals are worrisome.
This report focuses on the economic crisis. What started as a financial crisis in the
United States has quickly unfolded into an economic crisis that now threatens to roll
back the development gains of the last decade and may precipitate a human tragedy
in many parts of the developing world. The issues are global: this affects every
developing country from every region requiring that each country devise a strategy for
addressing the challenges. At the same time, intergovernmental cooperation, both
globally and regionally will be central towards ensuring that the solutions are equita-
ble and efficient.
The analysis presented in this report provides a regional perspective on how this crisis
is impacting the member states of the five Regional Commissions of the United
Nations, and examines the type and adequacy of responses at the national and regional
levels. It suggests ways in which the Regional Commissions can use their collective
strengths to prevent the economic crisis from becoming a human crisis.
OVERVIEW
A CRISIS ACROSS THE REGIONS