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v
STEERING COMMITTEE ON EXPANDING BIOFUEL
PRODUCTION: SUSTAINABILITY AND THE
TRANSITION TO ADVANCED BIOFUELS
Patrick Atkins, Aluminum Company of America (ALCOA)
John Carberry (Committee Chair), Former Director, Environmental
Technology, DuPont
Peter Ciborowski, Research Scientist, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Elisabeth Graffy, Economist, U.S. Geological Survey, Office of the Associate
Director for Geography
Nathanael Greene, Senior Policy Analyst, Natural Resources Defense Council
Jason Hill, Research Associate, University of Minnesota
Tracey Holloway, Director, Center for Sustainability and the Global
Environment, Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Marcia Patton-Mallory, Bioenergy and Climate Change Specialist, U.S.
Forest Service
Bruce Rodan, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Gary Radloff, Director of Policy and Strategic Communications, Wisconsin
Department of Agriculture Trade and Consumer Protection

vii
Preface and Acknowledgments
To follow up on discussions held by the Roundtable on Science and Technol-
ogy for Sustainability, the Science and Technology for Sustainability Program
appointed a steering committee of subject matter experts to plan a workshop that
would explore further the implications for sustainability of expanding biofuel
production. Initial discussions suggested that many local and regional impacts
associated with expanding biofuels exist in the U.S. Upper Midwest, so the
workshop focused specifically on this region.
In June 2009 the steering committee convened the workshop with the specific
purpose of developing a better understanding of the lessons that can be learned
from the experience with producing corn-based ethanol and the likely environ-
mental, economic, social, and energy security impacts of advanced biofuels. The
workshop offered an opportunity for dialogue between researchers and policy
makers on the sustainability impacts of expanding biofuel production at state and
regional levels. The workshop also sought to identify policy objectives and chal-
lenges facing state officials related to biofuels, provide examples of research that
may be useful to state decision-makers, and evaluate various tools and indicators
of possible use to state policy makers in assessing the likely sustainability impacts
and tradeoffs of their choices.
This document has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual
summary of what occurred at the workshop. The statements made in this volume
are those of the rapporteurs and do not necessarily represent positions of the
workshop participants as a whole, the steering committee, the Roundtable on
Science and Technology for Sustainability, or the National Academies.
This workshop summary is the result of substantial effort and collaboration
among several organizations and individuals. We wish to extend a sincere thanks
viii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
to each member of the steering committee for his/her contributions in scoping,
developing, and carrying out this project.
The project would not have been possible without the financial support of
its external sponsor, the Energy Foundation. It also benefitted from internal sup-
port provided by the George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability
Science.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap-
proved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will
assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to
ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity.
The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the
integrity of the process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Richard Cruse, Iowa State University; Gregory Nemet, University of Wisconsin;
Gary Radloff, Wisconsin Department of Agriculture; and Lisa Shames, U.S.
Government Accountability Office.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report,
nor did they see the final draft before its release. Responsibility for the final
content of this report rests entirely with the author(s) and the institution.
Patricia Koshel and Kathleen McAllister
Rapporteurs
ix
Contents
I Introduction and Overview 1
II Policies Driving the Expansion of Biofuel Production 5
III Next-Generation Technologies and Feedstocks 11
IV Dimensions of Sustainability and Expanding Biofuel Production 15
V Going Forward 29
APPENDIXES
A Workshop Agenda 39
B Workshop Participants 45
C Description of Agency Activities on Biofuels and Sustainability 49
D Brief Survey of State Biofuel Policies in the Upper Midwest 101
E Assessing the Sustainability of Biofuels: Metrics, Models, and
Tools for Evaluating the Impact of Biofuels 117
F Selected Bibliography 141
G Biographical Information: Workshop Participants 147
H The Science and Technology for Sustainability Roundtable and Roster of
Members 165

1
I
Introduction and Overview
On June 23 and 24, 2009, the National Research Council’s Roundtable on
Science and Technology for Sustainability (“Roundtable”) hosted the workshop
“Expanding Biofuel Production: Sustainability and the Transition to Advanced
Biofuels—Lessons from the Upper Midwest for Sustainability” in Madison,
Wisconsin. Organized by a steering committee, the workshop was attended by
approximately 75 people representing academia, state government, nongovern-
mental organizations, the business sector, and federal agencies. It was organized
around the following topics: policy drivers for the expansion of biofuels; the state
of biofuel technologies; the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of
sustainability, as related to biofuels; the business of biofuels; tools and indicators
for decision makers; and ongoing research related to biofuels and sustainability.
Breakout sessions examined lessons learned from the experience with producing
corn-based ethanol, the potential impacts of next-generation fuels, and future
challenges and opportunities. Throughout the workshop there was substantial
discussion about uncertainty—when will next-generation fuels be available at
commercial scale; what are the most likely feedstocks and where will they be
grown; does ethanol represent the best fuel for the future U.S. transportation sys-
tem, or are other energy sources, including other bio-based fuels, potentially more
sustainable; can policy inconsistencies at both federal and state levels be resolved
to support sustainability objectives; how can changes in land use be included as
a cost of production; and what are the long term consequences for scarce water
resources, ecosystems services, and local communities?
2 EXPANDING BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND THE TRANSITION TO ADVANCED BIOFUELS
CONTEXT
The U.S. biofuel industry has grown dramatically in recent years, with pro-
duction expanding from 1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to 9 billion gallons in 2008.
1

This dramatic increase can be attributed to the rise in production of corn-based
ethanol and associated, smaller quantities of soy-based biodiesel. The number
of refineries has also increased—from 54 in 2,000 to 170 in January 2009.
2
The
worldwide economic recession and lower prices for petroleum have slowed the
expansion of the industry, but because of strong state and federal mandates,
production is expected to grow until production capacity reaches the federally
mandated 36 billion gallons of biofuel in 2022.
3
While energy prices, energy security, and climate change are front and center
in the national media, these issues are often framed to the exclusion of the broader
issue of sustainability—ensuring that the production and use of biofuels do not
compromise the needs of future generations by recognizing the need to protect
life-support systems, promote economic growth, and improve societal welfare.
Thus, it is important to understand the effects of biofuel production and use on
water quality and quantity, soils, wildlife habitat and biodiversity, greenhouse
gas emissions, air quality, public health, and the economic viability of rural
communities.
4
Although corn-based ethanol is likely to continue to be a major contributor
to U.S. biofuel supply in the near term, it is important to plan for the transition
to advanced biofuels, such as agricultural resides (e.g., corn stover), perennial
grasses and woody biomass, which are now almost universally viewed as prefer-
able from a sustainability perspective. Decisions have been made at various levels
of government to promote biofuels as a potential means of reducing greenhouse
gases and enhancing economic development and energy security without a clear
understanding of the economic, environmental, and social impacts of biofuel
production and use.
While a number of studies have examined some of the environmental im-
pacts associated with the expansion of biofuel production and use, most of these
have focused at a national level. For example, the National Academies published
a report assessing the water implications of biofuels
5
and the World Resources
Institute has also published a series of reports on the subject.
6
However, many
1
See http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#A (accessed July 2, 2009).
2
See http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#EIO (accessed July 2, 2009).
3
U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA).
4
Energy security, while part of the EISA mandate, does not traditionally fall within the scope of
sustainability analyses and thus was not part of workshop discussions.
5
Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States. NRC 2009, http://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=12039.
6
Plants at the Pump: Reviewing Biofuels’ Impacts and Policy Recommendations. World Resources
Institute, July 2008; Biofuels and the Time Value of Carbon: Recommendations for GHG Accounting
Protocol. World Resources Institute, March 2009.
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 3
of the environmental effects of corn-based biofuels as well as next generation
biofuels are uniquely local or regional—including potential changes in water
availability or soil fertility. And many of the economic and social effects are also
most pronounced at a local level.
In an effort to better understand these impacts, the steering committee de-
cided to narrow the workshop scope and focus on three states in the Upper Mid-
west—Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This region is undergoing an economic
transition from a historical farming and manufacturing economy. Biofuels tech-
nology development and increased production have been touted as central to a
stronger regional economy. The three states have supported aggressive policies to
promote the development of the industry, focused on both the supply side as well
as the demand side. In addition, each of these states has strong research universi-
ties and a number of academic researchers focused both on the technology aspects
of biofuels and on the economic, environmental, and social impacts.
Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have seen substantial increases in corn
production since 2000, with total acreage expanding from 23,000 planted acres
in 2000 to 26,650 in 2007, and then declining slightly in 2008.
7
Each state also
has a large number of ethanol refineries—39 in Iowa, 17 in Minnesota, and 9
in Wisconsin. These plants account for 35 percent of the total U.S. nameplate
capacity.
8
These states are also likely to be an important source of biomass feed-
stocks for next-generation biofuels. Data from the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory suggest that approximately 75,000 tons of biomass resources could
be available annually from these three states—almost one-quarter of total U.S.
biomass resources.
9
The workshop was designed to draw on the expertise of researchers and
policy makers in the three-state region to better understand these local impacts
and the challenges faced by state policy makers, while at the same time recogniz-
ing the need to also consider the broader national and global impacts, including
impacts on world food supplies.
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
This report is limited in scope to the presentations, workshop discussions,
and background documents produced in preparation for the workshop. Chapter 2
discusses the principal policy drivers behind the expansion of biofuel production
and use. Chapter 3 focuses on the results of a recent National Academies report
7
National Corn Growers Association. See ncga.com/corn-production (accessed July 6, 2009).
8
See neo.neb.gov (accessed July 6, 2009). Name plate capacity is the maximum output of a plant
based on conditions designated by the manufacturer. Actual production is likely to be less than this
amount.
9
A. Milbrandt. A Geographic Perspective on the Current Biomass Resource Availability in the
United States. NREL/TP 560-39181. December 2005. Available at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/
39181.pdf.